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Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|